COVID: Unmasked

The old Dogge has been busy of late, but never too busy for some myth busting.  The Covid threat, while not quite a myth, is certainly turning into the biggest lie ever sold to the American people.

First, the most recent news.  The World Health Organization is finally acknowledging the obvious.  Covid shut downs are causing more poverty, more distress and more harm to the 99.2% of the population that does not have Covid than is justified by the health risk.  It is in their own words:

Not just the WHO but other heretofore economic contractionists like the World Bank and even Harvard, yeah THAT  Harvard, are now, and kicking and screaming no doubt, also approaching the truth:  closing economies throughout the world is causing far more harm than Covid.  The contractionists have suddenly discovered that closing economies is devastating to the poor.  The poorer the country, the more devastation.  World food supplies are being disrupted.  The science and the obviously unnecessary pain, both literal and metaphorical be damned, the Democrats will stay locked down until the Presidential election is over.  That is a good thing for us politically but tragic for the millions being punished by the Democrats.

Now, we all know Democrats hate science produced by the scientific method.  After all, who requires methodology when the scientist already feels the result, right?  These preposterous claims about the number of US cases do make sense.

The US has now tested over 118,488,000 persons.  That is an enormous data sample. The October 9, CDC report discloses a number of incongruities between the known hard numbers and the story of Covid being propagandized by the Democrats.    

First, Covid has been declining every week for months.  While new cases always occur the C+ percentage is now down nationally to 4%, although the 4-17 remains around 5%.  Some regions are higher than others.  The CDC October 9, 2020 release, shows 95% of the C+ demo are either a symptomatic or insufficiently ill to seek medical attention.  The mortality rate has continued to decline and is now down to 2.2%  That 2.2% is lower than any industrial country but Russia, Norway and India (oddly, India began mass hydro chloroquine treatments almost immediately upon arrival of the first cases).  The hospitalization rates show the same national proportions.  

Now a reasonably curious personality should find the very high rate of infection and the very low mortality, hospitalization and outpatient rates most incongruent.  There is an answer.  

The second development is being utterly stifled in the Democrat media.  The true story of the disproportionate number of US cases began to filter out around August 30th.  The US tests are sweeping in an enormous amount of false positives.  The methodology of the overcount is well explained here.  The use of hyper sensitive tests, not used elsewhere in the world, certainly helps explain why we are top of the list in a symptomatic cases, cases to mild to seek medical attention, hospitalization and death rates but very low on the list for total cases.  The impact means as many as 90% of positive tests are functionally false positives, there is insufficient live Covid DNA to cause any illness much less transmission. 

What we have not yet seen is any defense of the over sensitive Covid tests.  Oversensitivity of the testing result certainly goes a long way toward explaining the low percentage but still numerous positive results with the statistically trivial health impact.

And just think, Joe Biden continues to support the shut downs, the mass use of masks, the restriction of every type of First Amendment liberty interest in the name of Covid.  

COVID -- Oh the hysteria

The October 2 CDC report from last Friday continues to betray the Democrat media narrative that a virulent existential threat to the population remains bad and is continuing to deteriorate.  Contrary to  the Democrat media agit prop meme, the Covid 19 threat is shrinking daily.  

 The US has now Covid tested 107,536, 225 people.  That number reflects 32.5% of the American population.  The Trump Administration has provided an enormous data sample.    

There have been 7,505,022 total positive tests; and let's not forget that about 90% of those are false positive or a symptomatic.  Of that 7,055,022 a total of 4,873,669 have fully recovered, leaving only 2,631,323 known active cases.  The recovery rate has risen from 53.8% two weeks ago to 64.9% last week.  The raw numbers show the active cases have fallen to .796% of the population, the lowest percentage of C+ in months.  In street terms, that means the average person has less than .8% chance of even encountering a C+.

The October 2 CDC announcement said the rate of positive tests remained static at 4.8%.  That is a national average, of course some states are worse than others.  CDC data confirms that the rate of positive tests is no greater than 8%.  Remember, as many as 90% of the C+ demo are false positives and a symptomatic C+s.

Outpatient and clinic visits for Covid remained static at only .00178%. After raising two weeks ago, death rates began another fall this week.  Since January the over all death has fallen for 21 of the last 23 weeks.

Covid sucks but it is not the problem its purported to be.  The more we learn about how far less dangerous Covid is than it was predicted to be the more the Democrat agit prop media screams in ever increasing hysterical gibberish and assertions of absolute moral authority.

Do not be a sheep.  Demand an end to shut downs and mask requirements.  

COVID: The Mask Sheeple

 

Today, I saw four people driving alone in cars wearing masks.  That demonstrates a level of hysterical paranoia of an almost pathological degree.

Also, today, the CDC issued another weekly report on the national status of Covid.  While the Democrat propaganda operation has people so frightened they're wearing masks alone in cars the facts say something else.

The percent of positive tests has fallen to 4.8%, .3 of that decline happened in the last week alone.  The trend line is down; declining every week since mid July.  This stat is a major leading indicator. Other indications show a slowly spreading disease slowing its already slow rate of transmission: 

• Hospital and emergency services for Covid has fallen for 23 consecutive weeks.
• Hospitalizations have fallen to .1748%, a total of fewer than 4000 people.
• CDC  tracking shows outpatient medical treatment ranges from .6% to 1.4% across the ten national regions. 
• CDC tracking shows mortality from influenza, pneumonia and Covid have fallen sharply to only 6.6%-a 30% decline since the last reporting period and far below baseline.

The bigger picture is even brighter.  The complete recovery rate is growing faster than new cases, and is now up to 53.75%.  There are only 3,286,551 C+ today.  That represents only .99% of the population, nine months in.  As many as 90% of C+ might be entirely a symptomatic and incapable of transmitting the disease.  As reported today, at worst, 98.6% of C+ results present for outpatient or clinical treatment.  That means they're not very sick or not sick at all.

Notwithstanding all the science pointing toward a disease that is usually a symptomatic or so mild as to require no medical care, much less transmittable and far less deadly than the Democrat propaganda ops predicted and continue to insist remains true.  Do not forget the catastrophe of cases numbered in tens of millions-overwhelming the hospital system and millions dead, dying faster than the dead could be buried narrative that mask shaming Democrats were screeching last spring.  As the science proves the risk increasingly exaggerated Democrats and their prop ops become more shrill and climb ever higher onto the pulpit of absolute moral authority.

So be afraid, but not of Covid.  Be afraid of the people that inflicted economic devastation and all that comes with it to frighten the country into a false crises.  Then, ask why increasing the hysteria when the data proves the opposite of the Dem propaganda line.  They cannot credibly answer those questions. 

Or be a sheep and wear that mask when you're all alone.

Massive Covid Breaking-Only 6%...

Huge News, totally missed by the media until today, was snuck into a tiny little part of CDC's August 26 release.

Table 3 is the big kicker. In CDC's own words

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.  

The average is 2.6 comortalities.  This means the actual number of COVID deaths is not 185,537 but more like 11,132!   Ball park accurate and there are going to be a lot of openings in the  public heath industry.  Even more startling, the deaths are primarily, like 80%, in nursing homes among the very elderly.   

The August 26 release reclassifying mortality comes on the heels of the  August 24 CDC disclosures (1) Up to 90% of C+ tests had such insignificant levels of the COVID virus to be considered positive; and (2) a symptomatics no longer need to be tested if they had close contact with a C+, hence negating the concept of a symptomatic transmission. 

In short, the "Day After Tomorrow" existential health threat, with its predictions like tens of millions of cases, millions of deaths and the entire health system collapsed around the "Covid" pandemic has never been close to true.  The health officials wildly overstated the risk.  Maybe in good faith, maybe not. Either way, the overstatements were made and people suffered.  In blue states and parts of red states they suffer still.

The Dems have run with this scenario to justify defying the Bill of Rights and destroying commerce.  How partisan, vicious and very short sighted that decision will turn out.  

A reckoning from the public health community and the Dem leadership in these shut down blue states is immediately due.  The world does not need to cringe in fear when its heard someone has Covid, cuz its like someone getting the flu. No longer a headline or the need to quarantine entire cities with every positive diagnosis. Maybe ordering communities and businesses closed every time a new case is discovered is in our rear view mirror.

Maybe institutions that have wagered on fear, like the Big Ten, are going to snap back into reality.  Not likely but anger at the shut down is going to be near explosive levels and I do not think POTUS will be the guy blamed.

POTUS, go the blue states and demand the shut downs end.  Share this data with the world.  Senator Ernst, David Young you two need to be on the offensive here.  Have purpose, make the smart argument and you will prevail.

Weekly Covid Update: Questions for the Sheeple and their Herdsmen.

As the Covid picture continues its almost daily improvement, the cynical Democrat politics become increasingly obvious. Dems are counting POTUS will bear the blame for every injury with which Dems continue to oppress and impoverish  their states' residents.  Every day the data exposes the Dems and the real numbers make the Dems look silly and the mask crowd paranoid. 

The mortality rate has steadily declined nearly every day since May, while the recovery rate improves every day.  (Chart)   New hospitalizations have declined and remained low. 

As of today, the total cases in 8 months are 6,008,588.  Total recovered are 3,164,376.  The percentage of recovered is up to 52.66%.  The percentage of total C+ population sits at .861% nationally.  That makes the average person's risk of even coming in any contact with a C+ unlikely. 

Far from swamping the health care system, as the Dem hysterics shrieked in March reality has required fewer than 400,000 staffed beds. Throughout the entire history of Covid, from first patient admitted, through last released, not even half the hospital beds that existed before the outbreak have been occupied.  Collapse of the health care system was just another Dem lie to scare people.

The positive testing rate has remained stabilized at 5.5-5.8% since mid May, 10 weeks ago.  Every new person means another case, but every cured person means a case resolved.  While every new case is a headline of despair-and a foreshadowing of doom, there is no evidence of either a second wave or of a growing infected population. 

Best weekly news was the August 24 CDC recognition that a symptomatic persons do not require testing, even if they were in close contact with a C+.  This largely eliminates the single most dangerous aspect of the contagion, transmission by unknown, seemingly healthy C+s.  That risk is now considered trivial-or the CDC would still want to test "everyone", right? 

So, what is the real end game for these totalitarians?  When does the shut down end and norms of commercial and social conduct resume?  What is your target?  How did you determine that target? 

Love to see someone press Dem for answers. 

POTUS unveils coronavirus therapeutic 'breakthrough'

Great news on the Covid front.  POTUS unveils approval of a blood plasma based treatment for Covid. 

You can tell this therapeutic development is promising for the country by the extent to which the Dem's demented press operation has its unscientific agit prop at 11.  Instead of celebrating discovery of an effective therapy, the  Democrat propaganda machine's primary coverage is political. Expediting approval of a Covid cure is shown as a desperate Hail Mary throw to the end zone by a dying candidate.

The Dem's only apparent "scientific" argument is a mere implication blood plasma therapy appeared out of thin air, instead of actually having a 20,000 patient study and total use on 70,000 patients in the US. Democrats already showed they want the body count growing in their brief and stupid war on hydroxychloroquine, at least until Election Day, and they are willing to say or do anything to make it so.  Dems see the people they kill by shut downs and obstructing therapies, treatments and cures as martyrs to the cause of International Socialism.  No other mentality could produce the outrage Dems express about something that has actually worked and saved lives in thousands of cases. 

Covid's impact on the country makes it imperative to  discover and market therapies, treatments and vaccines sooner rather than later.  The Dems claim this Covid emergency is so dire they can suspend the 1st and 4th Amendments in Blue states, but implementing therapies and treatments can proceed at the FDA's normal glacial pace.  PreCovid, the Trump regulatory reforms first slowed the rate at which pharma prices rose then produced an actual reduction in pharma costs.  There is no one in the country that will accelerate successful remedies like Trump.  No one. 

Covid in Iowa or The Mouse that Roared

Do not remain silent whenever you hear the "shut down snowflakes" whimpering about closing schools, barbers,    restaurants, and all the many things that terrify the snow flakes.  Speak out, loudly. The actual facts show Covid 19 has gone from a statistically low risk to a trivial and certainly tolerable statistical risk in Iowa (and almost everywhere else in the US).

The population of Iowa is 3.18 million people.  As of August 22 there have been 55,496 confirmed cases in Iowa. After 8 months, that is a penetration rate of only 1.74%.  

Now, subtract the recovered cases, which is defined as absence of the virus.  Subtracting 43,362 from 55,496 leaves a difference of 12,134.

Only 12,134 Iowans have Covid 19,  .381% of the population. Beyond whatever the number of asymptomatic not yet tested those 12,134 are the only people in Iowa that are biologically capable of spreading Covid 19.

For practical risk assessment that 12,134 must subtract whatever number are currently hospitalized (a rolling average of around 300) or confined in nursing homes (#?). The 12,134 must be further reduced by whatever number are "sheltering in place" - a medical recommendation that every doctor makes to every  Covid positive patient.(#?)  

Once you look at the known numbers, what are the general odds of even encountering someone in Iowa with active Covid in a public place, other than a nursing home or healthcare facility?   

The risk of Covid in K-12 schools is lower yet.  The 0-17 demo in Iowa is 724,746 children.  Of that number 7%, or 3,884 total children have had Covid. That is a total infection rate of only .535%. Cannot find the exact numbers but Iowa's average recovery rate is 78% leaving only those not dead or recovered as uncertain outcomes.  Applying the general recovery rate to children at least 3,029 of the 0-17 demo have fully recovered, leaving only 885 children in Iowa with Covid, .122% of the demo.  Assuming most parents will provide appropriate care is it then not also true most of those 885 Covid children being kept home, also sheltering in place?  If so, they pose a nearly zero risk to anyone outside their home.

Of course, being merely around a Covid positive is insufficient to contract the virus.  The rate of spread is nothing like the "scientists" predicted, its obviously much much slower. Covid has been present for at least 240 days (assuming it first arrived in January, 2020). The incubation period is 2-14 days. Assuming the longer 14 day incubation period sufficient time has passed for 17 generations of viral reproduction and spread.  The R/naught rate is even slower among the K-12 demo, who demonstrate a greater resistance than adults and much greater than the 60+ demo.  

Nothing in the real numbers justifies depriving Iowans of essential public  services, and schools are at the top of that list.  Education and commerce did not halt during any previous epidemic.  The world cannot stop because a small part of the population might get sick.  A zero risk environment will never exist.