Saturday, August 22, 2020

Covid in Iowa or The Mouse that Roared

Do not remain silent whenever you hear the "shut down snowflakes" whimpering about closing schools, barbers,    restaurants, and all the many things that terrify the snow flakes.  Speak out, loudlyThe actual facts show Covid 19 has gone from a statistically low risk to a trivial and certainly tolerable statistical risk in Iowa (and almost everywhere else in the US).

The population of Iowa is 3.18 million people.  As of August 22 there have been 55,496 confirmed cases in Iowa. After 8 months, that is a penetration rate of only 1.74%.  

Now, subtract the recovered cases, which is defined as absence of the virus.  Subtracting 43,362 from 55,496 leaves a difference of 12,134.

Only 12,134 Iowans have Covid 19,  .381% of the population. Beyond whatever the number of asymptomatic not yet tested those 12,134 are the only people in Iowa that are biologically capable of spreading Covid 19.

For practical risk assessment that 12,134 must subtract whatever number are currently hospitalized (a rolling average of around 300) or confined in nursing homes (#?). The 12,134 must be further reduced by whatever number are "sheltering in place" - a medical recommendation that every doctor makes to every  Covid positive patient.(#?)  

Once you look at the known numbers, what are the general odds of even encountering someone in Iowa with active Covid in a public place, other than a nursing home or healthcare facility?   

The risk of Covid in K-12 schools is lower yet.  The 0-17 demo in Iowa is 724,746 children.  Of that number 7%, or 3,884 total children have had Covid. That is a total infection rate of only .535%. Cannot find the exact numbers but Iowa's average recovery rate is 78% leaving only those not dead or recovered as uncertain outcomes.  Applying the general recovery rate to children at least 3,029 of the 0-17 demo have fully recovered, leaving only 885 children in Iowa with Covid, .122% of the demo.  Assuming most parents will provide appropriate care is it then not also true most of those 885 Covid children being kept home, also sheltering in place?  If so, they pose a nearly zero risk to anyone outside their home.

Of course, being merely around a Covid positive is insufficient to contract the virus.  The rate of spread is nothing like the "scientists" predicted, its obviously much much slower. Covid has been present for at least 240 days (assuming it first arrived in January, 2020). The incubation period is 2-14 days. Assuming the longer 14 day incubation period sufficient time has passed for 17 generations of viral reproduction and spread.  The R/naught rate is even slower among the K-12 demo, who demonstrate a greater resistance than adults and much greater than the 60+ demo.  

Nothing in the real numbers justifies depriving Iowans of essential public  services, and schools are at the top of that list.  Education and commerce did not halt during any previous epidemic.  The world cannot stop because a small part of the population might get sick.  A zero risk environment will never exist. 

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